AAOI - Episodic Pivot - 2024-11-08

AAOI’s earnings report was underwhelming, with declining earnings and only a modest revenue beat.

However, the broader market surged following Trump’s re-election on November 5th, and AAOI benefited from strong sector momentum in the hot Telecom-Fiber Optics and AI data center space.

Despite a smaller-than-ideal earnings gap up of around 9%, it turned out to be one of the most successful earnings gap trades of 2024, rallying over 120% before sharply reversing after the Fed’s disastrous meeting on December 18th.